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JPN Japon - J-League · Match ·

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile43%
Nul29%
Victoire à l’extérieur28%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de51% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
43% / 29% / 28%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes V-Varen Nagasaki win (28.2%)Double chance1X71.8%1.39
Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%Goals 2.5Plus de51%1.96
Oui 55% · Non 45%Les deux équipes marquentOui55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Fagiano Okayama win43%2.332.1543%0.0 pp
Nul29%3.453.2028.9%+0.1 pp
V-Varen Nagasaki win28%3.573.3028%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Fagiano Okayama1.51

Domicile share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%

V-Varen Nagasaki1.22

Extérieur share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 55% · Non 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gagné probability excluding draw
28%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.51
Expected goals
1.22
Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Fagiano Okayama signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02V-Varen Nagasaki signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Fagiano Okayama victoire 43%,Nul 29%,V-Varen Nagasaki victoire 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Plus de 2.5 51% · Current selection Plus de