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TijdzoneAsia/Shanghai
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FIN Finland - Kolmonen · Wedstrijd ·

MPS vs ESPA

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score0–22.28 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst10%
Gelijkspel15%
Uitwinst75%
Full model forecastUitwinstTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUitwinst75% selection probability
Projected score0–2MPSESPA
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder60% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
10% / 15% / 75%WedstrijdresultaatUitwinst75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes MPS win (10%)Dubbele KansX290%1.11
Boven 40% · Onder 60%Goals 2.5Onder60%1.67
Ja 32% · Nee 68%Beide teams scorenNee68%1.47
2.28 total expected goalsExacte score0–2
9.7 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
MPS win10%10.009.0010.1%-0.1 pp
Gelijkspel15%6.676.2514.5%+0.5 pp
ESPA win75%1.331.2075.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

MPS0.47

Thuis share of expected goals 20.6%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 40% · Onder 60%

ESPA1.81

Uit share of expected goals 79.4%

Projected score0–2BTTS splitJa 32% · Nee 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

MPS

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

ESPA

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
10%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
75%
3
Points from supplied form
13
0.47
Expected goals
1.81
MPSESPA
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01MPS signalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ESPA signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 15%.

Match questions

MPS vs ESPA FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Uitwinst · Projected score 0–2 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

MPS gewonnen 10%,Gelijkspel 15%,ESPA gewonnen 75%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Boven 2.5 40% · Current selection Onder