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FIN Finlandia - Kolmonen · Partido ·

MPS vs ESPA

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score0–22.28 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local10%
Empate15%
Victoria visitante75%
Full model forecastVictoria visitanteTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria visitante75% selection probability
Projected score0–2MPSESPA
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de60% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo68% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
10% / 15% / 75%Resultado del partidoVictoria visitante75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes MPS win (10%)Doble OportunidadX290%1.11
Más de 40% · Menos de 60%Goals 2.5Menos de60%1.67
Sí 32% · No 68%Ambos equipos marcanNo68%1.47
2.28 total expected goalsMarcador exacto0–2
9.7 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.4%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
MPS win10%10.009.0010.1%-0.1 pp
Empate15%6.676.2514.5%+0.5 pp
ESPA win75%1.331.2075.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

MPS0.47

Local share of expected goals 20.6%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 40% · Menos de 60%

ESPA1.81

Visitante share of expected goals 79.4%

Projected score0–2BTTS split 32% · No 68%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

MPS

0.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puntos3

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

ESPA

2.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puntos13

SignalLocal failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
10%
Ganado probability excluding draw
75%
3
Points from supplied form
13
0.47
Expected goals
1.81
MPSESPA
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01MPS signalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ESPA signalLocal failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 15%.

Match questions

MPS vs ESPA FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria visitante · Projected score 0–2 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

MPS ganada 10%,Empate 15%,ESPA ganada 75%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Más de 2.5 40% · Current selection Menos de