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SCO Schotland - League One · Round 1 ·

Hamilton vs Alloa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.45 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst40%
Gelijkspel30%
Uitwinst30%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst40% selection probability
Projected score1–1HamiltonAlloa
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder56% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
40% / 30% / 30%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Dubbele Kans1270.5%1.42
Boven 44% · Onder 56%Goals 2.5Onder56%1.79
Ja 50% · Nee 50%Beide teams scorenNee50%2.00
2.45 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Hamilton win40%2.50
Gelijkspel30%3.33
Alloa win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hamilton1.38

Thuis share of expected goals 56.3%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 44% · Onder 56%

Alloa1.07

Uit share of expected goals 43.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nee 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Hamilton

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Alloa

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punten3

SignalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
30%
10
Points from supplied form
3
1.38
Expected goals
1.07
HamiltonAlloa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hamilton signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Alloa signalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Hamilton vs Alloa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hamilton gewonnen 40%,Gelijkspel 30%,Alloa gewonnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Boven 2.5 44% · Current selection Onder