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INT Portugal Liga 3 · Final ·

Varzim vs AD Marco 09

Prediction review

Hjemme form
Final score2–1Prognose 1–1
Borte form
Hjemmeseier46%
Uavgjort31%
Borteseier23%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 46% selection probability
Prediction Vunnet
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier46% selection probability
Projected score1–1VarzimAD Marco 09
Expected goals2.14Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under64% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
46% / 31% / 23%KampresultatHjemmeseier46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes AD Marco 09 win (23.2%)Dobbel sjanse1X76.8%1.30
Over 36% · Under 64%Goals 2.5Under64%1.56
Ja 40% · Nei 60%Begge lag scorerNei60%1.67
2.14 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Varzim win46%2.17
Uavgjort31%3.23
AD Marco 09 win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Varzim1.40

Hjemme share of expected goals 65.4%

Total expected goals2.14Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 36% · Under 64%

AD Marco 090.74

Borte share of expected goals 34.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 40% · Nei 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Varzim

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borte-context · form sequence

AD Marco 09

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalBorte unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
23%
5
Points from supplied form
11
1.40
Expected goals
0.74
VarzimAD Marco 09
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Varzim signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02AD Marco 09 signalBorte unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Varzim vs AD Marco 09 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 1–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Varzim vunnet 46%,Uavgjort 31%,AD Marco 09 vunnet 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.14 · Over 2.5 36% · Current selection Under