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MWI Malawi Super League · Kamp ·

Mitundu Baptist FC vs Karonga United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.57 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier44%
Uavgjort31%
Borteseier25%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Mitundu Baptist FCKaronga United
Expected goals2.57Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei52% for the selected side
Expected corners8.1Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
44% / 31% / 25%KampresultatHjemmeseier44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Karonga United win (25.1%)Dobbel sjanse1X74.9%1.34
Over 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Ja 48% · Nei 52%Begge lag scorerNei52%1.92
2.57 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapMitundu Baptist FC winDifference+1.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Mitundu Baptist FC win44%2.272.1042.6%+1.4 pp
Uavgjort31%3.232.8031.9%-0.9 pp
Karonga United win25%4.003.5025.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mitundu Baptist FC1.67

Hjemme share of expected goals 65%

Total expected goals2.57Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 47% · Under 53%

Karonga United0.90

Borte share of expected goals 35%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nei 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Mitundu Baptist FC

1.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poeng8

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Karonga United

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poeng4

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
25%
8
Points from supplied form
4
1.67
Expected goals
0.90
Mitundu Baptist FCKaronga United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mitundu Baptist FC signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Karonga United signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Mitundu Baptist FC vs Karonga United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mitundu Baptist FC vunnet 44%,Uavgjort 31%,Karonga United vunnet 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.57 · Over 2.5 47% · Current selection Under