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NIR Northern Ireland Premier · Round 1 ·

Carrick Rangers vs Portadown

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.24 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier50%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier25%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Carrick RangersPortadown
Expected goals3.24Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over63% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
50% / 25% / 25%KampresultatHjemmeseier50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Portadown win (24.8%)Dobbel sjanse1X75.2%1.33
Over 63% · Under 37%Goals 2.5Over63%1.59
Ja 61% · Nei 39%Begge lag scorerJa61%1.64
3.24 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Carrick Rangers win50%2.00
Uavgjort25%4.00
Portadown win25%4.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Carrick Rangers2.07

Hjemme share of expected goals 63.9%

Total expected goals3.24Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 63% · Under 37%

Portadown1.17

Borte share of expected goals 36.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 61% · Nei 39%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Carrick Rangers

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Portadown

1.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poeng8

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
25%
10
Points from supplied form
8
2.07
Expected goals
1.17
Carrick RangersPortadown
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Carrick Rangers signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Portadown signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Carrick Rangers vs Portadown FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Carrick Rangers vunnet 50%,Uavgjort 25%,Portadown vunnet 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Over 2.5 63% · Current selection Over