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INT Iraq Stars League · Fixture ·

Al Naft SC vs Duhok

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.74 expected goals
Away form
Home win34%
Draw31%
Away win35%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Al Naft SCDuhok
Expected goals1.74Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under75% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo66% for the selected side
Expected corners8.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
34% / 31% / 35%Match resultAway win35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (31.2%)Double chance1268.8%1.45
Over 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Yes 34% · No 66%Both teams scoreNo66%1.52
1.74 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Al Naft SC win34%2.942.6334%0.0 pp
Draw31%3.232.9030.9%+0.1 pp
Duhok win35%2.862.5535.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Al Naft SC0.89

Home share of expected goals 51.1%

Total expected goals1.74Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 25% · Under 75%

Duhok0.85

Away share of expected goals 48.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 34% · No 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Al Naft SC

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Duhok

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Win probability excluding draw
35%
11
Points from supplied form
3
0.89
Expected goals
0.85
Al Naft SCDuhok
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Al Naft SC signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Duhok signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Al Naft SC vs Duhok FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Al Naft SC win 34%,Draw 31%,Duhok win 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.74 · Over 2.5 25% · Current selection Under