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CHL Chile Tercera · Final ·

Comunal Cabrero vs Naval Talcahuano

Prediction review

Home form
Final score4–0Forecast 1–1
Away form
Home win41%
Draw29%
Away win30%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 41% selection probability
Prediction Won
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win41% selection probability
Projected score1–1Comunal CabreroNaval Talcahuano
Expected goals2.55Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
41% / 29% / 30%Match resultHome win41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.3%)Double chance1270.7%1.41
Over 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Yes 52% · No 48%Both teams scoreYes52%1.92
2.55 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.6 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Comunal Cabrero win41%2.44
Draw29%3.45
Naval Talcahuano win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Comunal Cabrero1.46

Home share of expected goals 57.3%

Total expected goals2.55Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 47% · Under 53%

Naval Talcahuano1.09

Away share of expected goals 42.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 52% · No 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Comunal Cabrero

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Naval Talcahuano

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Win probability excluding draw
30%
11
Points from supplied form
13
1.46
Expected goals
1.09
Comunal CabreroNaval Talcahuano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Comunal Cabrero signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Naval Talcahuano signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Comunal Cabrero vs Naval Talcahuano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Comunal Cabrero win 41%,Draw 29%,Naval Talcahuano win 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.55 · Over 2.5 47% · Current selection Under