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FIN Finland Kolmonen · Fixture ·

Virkia vs NIK

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.45 expected goals
Away form
Home win61%
Draw19%
Away win21%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win61% selection probability
Projected score2–1VirkiaNIK
Expected goals3.45Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over67% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
61% / 19% / 21%Match resultHome win61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (18.8%)Double chance1281.2%1.23
Over 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Over67%1.49
Yes 58% · No 42%Both teams scoreYes58%1.72
3.45 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapVirkia winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Virkia win61%1.641.5059.8%+1.2 pp
Draw19%5.264.7518.9%+0.1 pp
NIK win21%4.764.2021.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Virkia2.46

Home share of expected goals 71.3%

Total expected goals3.45Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 67% · Under 33%

NIK0.99

Away share of expected goals 28.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 58% · No 42%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Virkia

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

NIK

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Win probability excluding draw
21%
7
Points from supplied form
5
2.46
Expected goals
0.99
VirkiaNIK
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Virkia signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02NIK signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 19%.

Match questions

Virkia vs NIK FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Virkia win 61%,Draw 19%,NIK win 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.45 · Over 2.5 67% · Current selection Over