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CHN China Division 2 · Fixture ·

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.97 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw29%
Away win28%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score1–1Chengdu Rongcheng ReservesHubei Istar
Expected goals1.97Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under68% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo60% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 29% / 28%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Hubei Istar win (28%)Double chance1X72%1.39
Over 32% · Under 68%Goals 2.5Under68%1.47
Yes 40% · No 60%Both teams scoreNo60%1.67
1.97 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.3%Largest probability gapChengdu Rongcheng Reserves winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves win43%2.332.0543.8%-0.8 pp
Draw29%3.453.1029%0.0 pp
Hubei Istar win28%3.573.3027.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves0.92

Home share of expected goals 46.7%

Total expected goals1.97Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 32% · Under 68%

Hubei Istar1.05

Away share of expected goals 53.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 40% · No 60%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Hubei Istar

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
6
0.92
Expected goals
1.05
Chengdu Rongcheng ReservesHubei Istar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Hubei Istar signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves vs Hubei Istar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves win 43%,Draw 29%,Hubei Istar win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.97 · Over 2.5 32% · Current selection Under