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HRV Croatia HNL · Round 1 ·

HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.59 expected goals
Away form
Home win24%
Draw28%
Away win48%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win48% selection probability
Projected score1–2HNK RijekaDinamo Zagreb
Expected goals2.59Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under52% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
24% / 28% / 48%Match resultAway win48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Rijeka win (23.8%)Double chanceX276.2%1.31
Over 48% · Under 52%Goals 2.5Under52%1.92
Yes 49% · No 51%Both teams scoreNo51%1.96
2.59 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
HNK Rijeka win24%4.17
Draw28%3.57
Dinamo Zagreb win48%2.08

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

HNK Rijeka0.90

Home share of expected goals 34.7%

Total expected goals2.59Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 48% · Under 52%

Dinamo Zagreb1.69

Away share of expected goals 65.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 49% · No 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

HNK Rijeka

3.00pts / match
Played5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Dinamo Zagreb

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Win probability excluding draw
48%
15
Points from supplied form
11
0.90
Expected goals
1.69
HNK RijekaDinamo Zagreb
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01HNK Rijeka signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dinamo Zagreb signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

HNK Rijeka win 24%,Draw 28%,Dinamo Zagreb win 48%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.59 · Over 2.5 48% · Current selection Under