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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Final ·

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Atletico Morelia

Prediction review

Home form
Final score1–2Forecast 1–1
Away form
Home win36%
Draw27%
Away win36%
Market-based forecastAway winTier B · 36% selection probability
Prediction Won
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cruz Azul HidalgoAtletico Morelia
Expected goals2.79Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over52% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 27% / 36%Match resultAway win36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Double chance1272.6%1.38
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.79 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin6.4%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cruz Azul Hidalgo win36%2.782.7034.8%
Draw27%3.703.4027.6%
Atletico Morelia win36%2.782.5037.6%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo1.45

Home share of expected goals 52%

Total expected goals2.79Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%

Atletico Morelia1.34

Away share of expected goals 48%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

0.67pts / match
Played3Wins0Drawn2Losses1Points2

SignalHome failed to score: 2/3

Away-context · form sequence

Atletico Morelia

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
36%
2
Points from supplied form
9
1.45
Expected goals
1.34
Cruz Azul HidalgoAtletico Morelia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cruz Azul Hidalgo signalHome failed to score: 2/3

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Atletico Morelia signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Atletico Morelia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cruz Azul Hidalgo win 36%,Draw 27%,Atletico Morelia win 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.79 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over