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USA USA USL Championship · Fixture ·

Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.66 expected goals
Away form
Home win33%
Draw29%
Away win39%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Birmingham Legion FCLexington SC
Expected goals2.66Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under50% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
33% / 29% / 39%Match resultAway win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.8%)Double chance1271.2%1.40
Over 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Under50%2.00
Yes 54% · No 46%Both teams scoreYes54%1.85
2.66 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Birmingham Legion FC win33%3.03
Draw29%3.45
Lexington SC win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Birmingham Legion FC1.23

Home share of expected goals 46.2%

Total expected goals2.66Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 50% · Under 50%

Lexington SC1.43

Away share of expected goals 53.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 54% · No 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Birmingham Legion FC

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Lexington SC

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
33%
Win probability excluding draw
39%
5
Points from supplied form
10
1.23
Expected goals
1.43
Birmingham Legion FCLexington SC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Birmingham Legion FC signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lexington SC signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Birmingham Legion FC vs Lexington SC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Birmingham Legion FC win 33%,Draw 29%,Lexington SC win 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.66 · Over 2.5 50% · Current selection Under