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ENG England National League · Round 1 ·

Eastleigh vs Gateshead

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.04 expected goals
Away form
Home win43%
Draw27%
Away win30%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win43% selection probability
Projected score2–1EastleighGateshead
Expected goals3.04Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over59% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes60% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
43% / 27% / 30%Match resultHome win43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Double chance1272.9%1.37
Over 59% · Under 41%Goals 2.5Over59%1.69
Yes 60% · No 40%Both teams scoreYes60%1.67
3.04 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Eastleigh win43%2.33
Draw27%3.70
Gateshead win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Eastleigh1.75

Home share of expected goals 57.6%

Total expected goals3.04Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 59% · Under 41%

Gateshead1.29

Away share of expected goals 42.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 60% · No 40%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Eastleigh

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

Gateshead

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Win probability excluding draw
30%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.75
Expected goals
1.29
EastleighGateshead
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Eastleigh signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Gateshead signalAway clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Eastleigh vs Gateshead FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Eastleigh win 43%,Draw 27%,Gateshead win 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.04 · Over 2.5 59% · Current selection Over