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ENG England Championship · Fixture ·

Bristol City vs Millwall

Archived pre-match prediction

Home form
Projected score1–12.33 expected goals
Away form
Home win32%
Draw30%
Away win38%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win38% selection probability
Projected score1–1Bristol CityMillwall
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
32% / 30% / 38%Match resultAway win38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.4%)Double chance1269.6%1.44
Over 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Yes 48% · No 52%Both teams scoreNo52%1.92
2.33 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Bristol City win32%3.13
Draw30%3.33
Millwall win38%2.63

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Bristol City1.08

Home share of expected goals 46.4%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 41% · Under 59%

Millwall1.25

Away share of expected goals 53.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 48% · No 52%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Bristol City

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Millwall

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
32%
Win probability excluding draw
38%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.08
Expected goals
1.25
Bristol CityMillwall
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Bristol City signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Millwall signalHome won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Bristol City vs Millwall FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Bristol City win 32%,Draw 30%,Millwall win 38%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · Over 2.5 41% · Current selection Under