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JPN J3リーグ · Round 1 ·

ガイナーレ鳥取 vs FC大阪

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

ホーム form
Projected score1–12.38 expected goals
アウェイ form
ホーム勝利29%
引き分け28%
アウェイ勝利43%
Full model forecastアウェイ勝利Tier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callアウェイ勝利43% selection probability
Projected score1–1ガイナーレ鳥取FC大阪
Expected goals2.38Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5アンダー58% for the selected side
両チーム得点いいえ51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4アンダー 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market選択確率フェアオッズ
29% / 28% / 43%試合結果アウェイ勝利43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.9%)ダブルチャンス1272.1%1.39
オーバー 42% · アンダー 58%Goals 2.5アンダー58%1.72
はい 49% · いいえ 51%両チーム得点いいえ51%1.96
2.38 total expected goals正確なスコア1–1
9.4 expected match cornersコーナーアンダー 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.3%Largest probability gapFC大阪 winDifference-0.4 pp
Outcome予想フェアオッズReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
ガイナーレ鳥取 win29%3.453.1028.7%+0.3 pp
引き分け28%3.573.2027.8%+0.2 pp
FC大阪 win43%2.332.0543.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

ガイナーレ鳥取1.13

ホーム share of expected goals 47.5%

Total expected goals2.38Balanced

Dedicated goals model: オーバー 42% · アンダー 58%

FC大阪1.25

アウェイ share of expected goals 52.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitはい 49% · いいえ 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

ホーム-context · form sequence

ガイナーレ鳥取

2.40pts / match
試合数5Wins4Drawn0Losses1ポイント12

Signalホーム unbeaten 4/5

アウェイ-context · form sequence

FC大阪

2.60pts / match
試合数5Wins4Drawn1Losses0ポイント13

Signalホーム matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
勝ち probability excluding draw
43%
12
Points from supplied form
13
1.13
Expected goals
1.25
ガイナーレ鳥取FC大阪
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01ガイナーレ鳥取 signalホーム unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC大阪 signalホーム matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 引き分け probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

ガイナーレ鳥取 vs FC大阪 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: アウェイ勝利 · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

ガイナーレ鳥取 勝ち 29%,引き分け 28%,FC大阪 勝ち 43%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.38 · オーバー 2.5 42% · Current selection アンダー