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Groningen vs Utrecht

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.33 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa35%
Pareggio30%
Vittoria ospite35%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa35% selection probability
Projected score1–1GroningenUtrecht
Expected goals2.33Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto59% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
35% / 30% / 35%Esito partitaVittoria casa35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.3%)Doppia Chance1269.7%1.43
Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%Goals 2.5Sotto59%1.69
Sì 48% · No 52%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52%1.92
2.33 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
10.6 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Groningen win35%2.86
Pareggio30%3.33
Utrecht win35%2.86

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Groningen1.17

Casa share of expected goals 50.2%

Total expected goals2.33Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 41% · Sotto 59%

Utrecht1.16

Trasferta share of expected goals 49.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 48% · No 52%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Groningen

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Utrecht

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Vinta probability excluding draw
35%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.17
Expected goals
1.16
GroningenUtrecht
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Groningen signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Utrecht signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Groningen vs Utrecht FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Groningen vinta 35%,Pareggio 30%,Utrecht vinta 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.33 · Sopra 2.5 41% · Current selection Sotto