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AUS Australia - Queensland Premier League · Round 20 ·

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–13.10 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa61%
Pareggio20%
Vittoria ospite19%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa61% selection probability
Projected score2–1Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Expected goals3.10Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra60% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo58% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
61% / 20% / 19%Esito partitaVittoria casa61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes St George Willawong FC win (19%)Doppia Chance1X81%1.23
Sopra 60% · Sotto 40%Goals 2.5Sopra60%1.67
Sì 42% · No 58%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo58%1.72
3.10 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.0%Largest probability gapSt George Willawong FC winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Logan Lightning win61%1.641.5059.5%+1.5 pp
Pareggio20%5.004.5019.8%+0.2 pp
St George Willawong FC win19%5.264.3320.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Logan Lightning2.50

Casa share of expected goals 80.6%

Total expected goals3.10Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 60% · Sotto 40%

St George Willawong FC0.60

Trasferta share of expected goals 19.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 42% · No 58%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Logan Lightning

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

St George Willawong FC

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punti9

SignalCasa won 2/4 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Vinta probability excluding draw
19%
7
Points from supplied form
9
2.50
Expected goals
0.60
Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Logan Lightning signalCasa matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St George Willawong FC signalCasa won 2/4 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Logan Lightning vinta 61%,Pareggio 20%,St George Willawong FC vinta 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.10 · Sopra 2.5 60% · Current selection Sopra