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SWE Sweden Allsvenskan · Fixture ·

Sirius vs Malmo FF

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score3–24.78 expected goals
Away form
Home win52%
Draw24%
Away win24%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win52% selection probability
Projected score3–2SiriusMalmo FF
Expected goals4.78Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over86% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes79% for the selected side
Expected corners10.5Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
52% / 24% / 24%Match resultHome win52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.7%)Double chance1276.3%1.31
Over 86% · Under 14%Goals 2.5Over86%1.16
Yes 79% · No 21%Both teams scoreYes79%1.27
4.78 total expected goalsCorrect score3–2
10.5 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.2%Largest probability gapSirius winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sirius win52%1.921.8050.9%+1.1 pp
Draw24%4.173.7524.4%-0.4 pp
Malmo FF win24%4.173.7024.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sirius3.04

Home share of expected goals 63.6%

Total expected goals4.78Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 86% · Under 14%

Malmo FF1.74

Away share of expected goals 36.4%

Projected score3–2BTTS splitYes 79% · No 21%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Sirius

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Malmo FF

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Win probability excluding draw
24%
7
Points from supplied form
6
3.04
Expected goals
1.74
SiriusMalmo FF
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sirius signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Malmo FF signalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Sirius vs Malmo FF FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 3–2 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sirius win 52%,Draw 24%,Malmo FF win 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.78 · Over 2.5 86% · Current selection Over