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NOR Norway Division 1 · Round 14 ·

Stabaek vs Lyn 1896

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.17 expected goals
Away form
Home win58%
Draw24%
Away win18%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win58% selection probability
Projected score2–1StabaekLyn 1896
Expected goals3.17Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over61% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes53% for the selected side
Expected corners11.7Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
58% / 24% / 18%Match resultHome win58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lyn 1896 win (18.3%)Double chance1X81.7%1.22
Over 61% · Under 39%Goals 2.5Over61%1.64
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
3.17 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
11.7 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Stabaek win58%1.72
Draw24%4.17
Lyn 1896 win18%5.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Stabaek2.29

Home share of expected goals 72.2%

Total expected goals3.17Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 61% · Under 39%

Lyn 18960.88

Away share of expected goals 27.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Stabaek

2.40pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Lyn 1896

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Win probability excluding draw
18%
12
Points from supplied form
7
2.29
Expected goals
0.88
StabaekLyn 1896
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Stabaek signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lyn 1896 signalHome clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Stabaek vs Lyn 1896 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Stabaek win 58%,Draw 24%,Lyn 1896 win 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.17 · Over 2.5 61% · Current selection Over