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PRT Portugal Campeonato Nacional · Final ·

Mortagua FC vs GD Os Nazarenos

Prediction review

Home form
Final score3–1Forecast 1–1
Away form
Home win44%
Draw27%
Away win28%
Baseline forecastHome winTier C · 44% selection probability
Prediction Won
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Mortagua FCGD Os Nazarenos
Expected goals2.38Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 27% / 28%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.3%)Double chance1272.7%1.38
Over 43% · Under 57%Goals 2.5Under57%1.75
Yes 48% · No 52%Both teams scoreNo52%1.92
2.38 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Mortagua FC win44%2.27
Draw27%3.70
GD Os Nazarenos win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mortagua FC1.36

Home share of expected goals 57.1%

Total expected goals2.38Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 43% · Under 57%

GD Os Nazarenos1.02

Away share of expected goals 42.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 48% · No 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Mortagua FC

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

GD Os Nazarenos

0.00pts / match
Played0Wins0Drawn0Losses0Points0

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
6
Points from supplied form
0
1.36
Expected goals
1.02
Mortagua FCGD Os Nazarenos
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mortagua FC signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02GD Os Nazarenos signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Mortagua FC vs GD Os Nazarenos FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mortagua FC win 44%,Draw 27%,GD Os Nazarenos win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.38 · Over 2.5 43% · Current selection Under