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FRA France Ligue 2 · Round 1 ·

Boulogne vs Nancy

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.45 expected goals
Away form
Home win37%
Draw29%
Away win34%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win37% selection probability
Projected score1–1BoulogneNancy
Expected goals2.45Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
37% / 29% / 34%Match resultHome win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.8%)Double chance1271.2%1.40
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreYes50%2.00
2.45 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.3%Largest probability gapNancy winDifference-0.2 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Boulogne win37%2.702.5036.9%+0.1 pp
Draw29%3.453.2028.9%+0.1 pp
Nancy win34%2.942.7034.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Boulogne1.29

Home share of expected goals 52.7%

Total expected goals2.45Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Nancy1.16

Away share of expected goals 47.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Boulogne

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Nancy

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Win probability excluding draw
34%
7
Points from supplied form
11
1.29
Expected goals
1.16
BoulogneNancy
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Boulogne signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Nancy signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Boulogne vs Nancy FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Boulogne win 37%,Draw 29%,Nancy win 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.45 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under