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ENG Angleterre - EFL Cup · Match ·

Derby vs Lincoln City

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.70 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile37%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur37%
Baseline forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier C · 37% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur37% selection probability
Projected score1–1DerbyLincoln City
Expected goals2.70Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de51% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
37% / 26% / 37%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.8%)Double chance1274.2%1.35
Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%Goals 2.5Plus de51%1.96
Oui 55% · Non 45%Les deux équipes marquentOui55%1.82
2.70 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
9.4 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Derby win37%2.70
Nul26%3.85
Lincoln City win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Derby1.34

Domicile share of expected goals 49.6%

Total expected goals2.70Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 51% · Moins de 49%

Lincoln City1.36

Extérieur share of expected goals 50.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 55% · Non 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Derby

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Lincoln City

2.00pts / match
Joués3Wins2Drawn0Losses1Points6

SignalNon recent signal

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Gagné probability excluding draw
37%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.34
Expected goals
1.36
DerbyLincoln City
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Derby signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lincoln City signalNon recent signal

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Derby vs Lincoln City FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Derby victoire 37%,Nul 26%,Lincoln City victoire 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.70 · Plus de 2.5 51% · Current selection Plus de