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ENG England - EFL Cup · Kamp ·

Derby vs Lincoln City

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.70 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr37%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr37%
Baseline forecastUdesejrTier C · 37% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr37% selection probability
Projected score1–1DerbyLincoln City
Expected goals2.70Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
37% / 26% / 37%KampresultatUdesejr37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.8%)Dobbeltchance1274.2%1.35
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 55% · Nej 45%Begge hold scorerJa55%1.82
2.70 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Derby win37%2.70
Uafgjort26%3.85
Lincoln City win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Derby1.34

Hjemme share of expected goals 49.6%

Total expected goals2.70Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Lincoln City1.36

Ude share of expected goals 50.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 55% · Nej 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Derby

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Lincoln City

2.00pts / match
Spillet3Wins2Drawn0Losses1Point6

SignalNej recent signal

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Vundet probability excluding draw
37%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.34
Expected goals
1.36
DerbyLincoln City
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Derby signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lincoln City signalNej recent signal

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Derby vs Lincoln City FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Derby vundet 37%,Uafgjort 26%,Lincoln City vundet 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.70 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over