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ENG Inglaterra - National League South · Round 1 ·

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.34 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local40%
Empate27%
Victoria visitante33%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local40% selection probability
Projected score1–1Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Expected goals2.34Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de59% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
40% / 27% / 33%Resultado del partidoVictoria local40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.7%)Doble Oportunidad1273.3%1.36
Más de 41% · Menos de 59%Goals 2.5Menos de59%1.69
Sí 48% · No 52%Ambos equipos marcanNo52%1.92
2.34 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
9.3 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.9%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hemel Hempstead win40%2.502.2540.1%-0.1 pp
Empate27%3.703.4026.5%+0.5 pp
Chelmsford win33%3.032.7033.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hemel Hempstead1.28

Local share of expected goals 54.7%

Total expected goals2.34Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 41% · Menos de 59%

Chelmsford1.06

Visitante share of expected goals 45.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 48% · No 52%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Hemel Hempstead

1.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Puntos9

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Chelmsford

1.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Puntos6

SignalLocal unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Ganado probability excluding draw
33%
9
Points from supplied form
6
1.28
Expected goals
1.06
Hemel HempsteadChelmsford
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hemel Hempstead signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chelmsford signalLocal unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hemel Hempstead ganada 40%,Empate 27%,Chelmsford ganada 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.34 · Más de 2.5 41% · Current selection Menos de