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CHE Schweiz - Challenge League · Spiel ·

Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–13.38 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg48%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg48% selection probability
Projected score2–1AarauNeuchatel Xamax
Expected goals3.38Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über66% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
48% / 25% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Doppelte Chance1275.4%1.33
Über 66% · Unter 34%Goals 2.5Über66%1.52
Ja 65% · Nein 35%Beide Teams treffenJa65%1.54
3.38 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.2 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.1%Largest probability gapAarau winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Aarau win48%2.081.9048.3%-0.3 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.7024.8%+0.2 pp
Neuchatel Xamax win27%3.703.4027%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Aarau1.99

Heim share of expected goals 58.9%

Total expected goals3.38Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 66% · Unter 34%

Neuchatel Xamax1.39

Auswärts share of expected goals 41.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 65% · Nein 35%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Aarau

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Neuchatel Xamax

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
7
Points from supplied form
12
1.99
Expected goals
1.39
AarauNeuchatel Xamax
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Aarau signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Neuchatel Xamax signalHeim unbeaten in 3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Aarau Gewinn 48%,Unentschieden 25%,Neuchatel Xamax Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.38 · Über 2.5 66% · Current selection Über