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MWI Malawi Super League · Spiel ·

Mitundu Baptist FC vs Karonga United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.52 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg44%
Unentschieden31%
Auswärtssieg25%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Mitundu Baptist FCKaronga United
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter54% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.1Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
44% / 31% / 25%SpielergebnisHeimsieg44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Karonga United win (25.1%)Doppelte Chance1X74.9%1.34
Über 46% · Unter 54%Goals 2.5Unter54%1.85
Ja 47% · Nein 53%Beide Teams treffenNein53%1.89
2.52 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
8.1 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapMitundu Baptist FC winDifference+1.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Mitundu Baptist FC win44%2.272.1042.6%+1.4 pp
Unentschieden31%3.232.8031.9%-0.9 pp
Karonga United win25%4.003.5025.5%-0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mitundu Baptist FC1.64

Heim share of expected goals 65.1%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 46% · Unter 54%

Karonga United0.88

Auswärts share of expected goals 34.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nein 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Mitundu Baptist FC

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Karonga United

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
25%
8
Points from supplied form
4
1.64
Expected goals
0.88
Mitundu Baptist FCKaronga United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mitundu Baptist FC signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Karonga United signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Mitundu Baptist FC vs Karonga United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mitundu Baptist FC Gewinn 44%,Unentschieden 31%,Karonga United Gewinn 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Über 2.5 46% · Current selection Unter