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BRA Brasilien - Serie D · Spiel ·

Nacional AM vs ABC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–11.83 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg36%
Unentschieden33%
Auswärtssieg31%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg36% selection probability
Projected score1–1Nacional AMABC
Expected goals1.83Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter72% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
36% / 33% / 31%SpielergebnisHeimsieg36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ABC win (31%)Doppelte Chance1X69%1.45
Über 28% · Unter 72%Goals 2.5Unter72%1.39
Ja 36% · Nein 64%Beide Teams treffenNein64%1.56
1.83 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
10.1 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Nacional AM win36%2.78
Unentschieden33%3.03
ABC win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nacional AM0.98

Heim share of expected goals 53.6%

Total expected goals1.83Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 28% · Unter 72%

ABC0.85

Auswärts share of expected goals 46.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 36% · Nein 64%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Nacional AM

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punkte6

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

ABC

1.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punkte8

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
8
0.98
Expected goals
0.85
Nacional AMABC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nacional AM signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ABC signalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Nacional AM vs ABC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nacional AM Gewinn 36%,Unentschieden 33%,ABC Gewinn 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.83 · Über 2.5 28% · Current selection Unter