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ENG England - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Fulham vs Chelsea

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.62 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg24%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg51%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg51% selection probability
Projected score1–1FulhamChelsea
Expected goals2.62Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter51% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
24% / 25% / 51%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fulham win (24.3%)Doppelte ChanceX275.7%1.32
Über 49% · Unter 51%Goals 2.5Unter51%1.96
Ja 54% · Nein 46%Beide Teams treffenJa54%1.85
2.62 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
10.4 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.6%Largest probability gapChelsea winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Fulham win24%4.174.1023.1%+0.9 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.9024.3%+0.7 pp
Chelsea win51%1.961.8052.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Fulham1.39

Heim share of expected goals 53.1%

Total expected goals2.62Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 49% · Unter 51%

Chelsea1.23

Auswärts share of expected goals 46.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nein 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Fulham

1.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punkte7

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Chelsea

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
51%
7
Points from supplied form
4
1.39
Expected goals
1.23
FulhamChelsea
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Fulham signalHeim matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chelsea signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Fulham vs Chelsea FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Fulham Gewinn 24%,Unentschieden 25%,Chelsea Gewinn 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.62 · Über 2.5 49% · Current selection Unter