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GEO Georgien - Erovnuli Liga · Round 20 ·

Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–22.95 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg25%
Unentschieden26%
Auswärtssieg49%
Full model forecastAuswärtssiegTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAuswärtssieg49% selection probability
Projected score1–2Meshakhte TkibuliSamgurali
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über57% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
25% / 26% / 49%SpielergebnisAuswärtssieg49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Meshakhte Tkibuli win (25.1%)Doppelte ChanceX274.9%1.34
Über 57% · Unter 43%Goals 2.5Über57%1.75
Ja 57% · Nein 43%Beide Teams treffenJa57%1.75
2.95 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–2
9.3 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.6%Largest probability gapSamgurali winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Meshakhte Tkibuli win25%4.003.5025.4%-0.4 pp
Unentschieden26%3.853.4026.1%-0.1 pp
Samgurali win49%2.041.8348.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Meshakhte Tkibuli1.10

Heim share of expected goals 37.3%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 57% · Unter 43%

Samgurali1.85

Auswärts share of expected goals 62.7%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 57% · Nein 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Meshakhte Tkibuli

0.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkte1

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Samgurali

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
49%
1
Points from supplied form
10
1.10
Expected goals
1.85
Meshakhte TkibuliSamgurali
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Meshakhte Tkibuli signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Samgurali signalAuswärts unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Meshakhte Tkibuli vs Samgurali FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Auswärtssieg · Projected score 1–2 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Meshakhte Tkibuli Gewinn 25%,Unentschieden 26%,Samgurali Gewinn 49%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Über 2.5 57% · Current selection Über