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CHE Schweiz - Challenge League · Kamp ·

Etoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.81 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr39%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr36%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Etoile CarougeNeuchatel Xamax
Expected goals2.81Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
39% / 26% / 36%KampresultatHjemmesejr39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.8%)Dobbeltchance1274.2%1.35
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Begge hold scorerJa57%1.75
2.81 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.9%Largest probability gapEtoile Carouge winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Etoile Carouge win39%2.562.4038.6%+0.4 pp
Uafgjort26%3.853.6025.7%+0.3 pp
Neuchatel Xamax win36%2.782.6035.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Etoile Carouge1.43

Hjemme share of expected goals 50.9%

Total expected goals2.81Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

Neuchatel Xamax1.38

Ude share of expected goals 49.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Etoile Carouge

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Neuchatel Xamax

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Point9

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vundet probability excluding draw
36%
5
Points from supplied form
9
1.43
Expected goals
1.38
Etoile CarougeNeuchatel Xamax
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Etoile Carouge signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Neuchatel Xamax signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Etoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Etoile Carouge vundet 39%,Uafgjort 26%,Neuchatel Xamax vundet 36%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.81 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over