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URY Uruguay Segunda · Match ·

La Luz vs Club Oriental

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.91 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger36%
Oavgjort30%
Bortaseger34%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 36% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger36% selection probability
Projected score1–1La LuzClub Oriental
Expected goals1.91Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under70% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej62% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
36% / 30% / 34%MatchresultatHemmaseger36%2.78
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (30.2%)Dubbelchans1269.8%1.43
Över 30% · Under 70%Goals 2.5Under70%1.43
Ja 38% · Nej 62%Båda lagen gör målNej62%1.61
1.91 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.5 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapLa Luz winDifference-0.7 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
La Luz win36%2.782.4536.7%-0.7 pp
Oavgjort30%3.333.0030%0.0 pp
Club Oriental win34%2.942.7033.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

La Luz0.83

Hemma share of expected goals 43.5%

Total expected goals1.91Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 30% · Under 70%

Club Oriental1.08

Borta share of expected goals 56.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 38% · Nej 62%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

La Luz

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma clean sheets: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Club Oriental

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
34%
7
Points from supplied form
5
0.83
Expected goals
1.08
La LuzClub Oriental
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01La Luz signalHemma clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Oriental signalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk64% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

La Luz vs Club Oriental FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 36% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

La Luz vunnen 36%,Oavgjort 30%,Club Oriental vunnen 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.91 · Över 2.5 30% · Current selection Under