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FIN Finland Veikkausliiga · Match ·

FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.09 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger43%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger30%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger43% selection probability
Projected score2–1FC IlvesVPS Vaasa
Expected goals3.09Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över60% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
43% / 27% / 30%MatchresultatHemmaseger43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.9%)Dubbelchans1273.1%1.37
Över 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Över60%1.67
Ja 61% · Nej 39%Båda lagen gör målJa61%1.64
3.09 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
FC Ilves win43%2.33
Oavgjort27%3.70
VPS Vaasa win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves1.77

Hemma share of expected goals 57.3%

Total expected goals3.09Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 60% · Under 40%

VPS Vaasa1.32

Borta share of expected goals 42.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 61% · Nej 39%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalHemma won 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

VPS Vaasa

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
30%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.77
Expected goals
1.32
FC IlvesVPS Vaasa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHemma won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02VPS Vaasa signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs VPS Vaasa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves vunnen 43%,Oavgjort 27%,VPS Vaasa vunnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.09 · Över 2.5 60% · Current selection Över