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ENG England - League 1 · Match ·

Burton Albion vs Stevenage

Archived pre-match prediction

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.74 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger35%
Oavgjort34%
Bortaseger31%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Burton AlbionStevenage
Expected goals1.74Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under75% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
35% / 34% / 31%MatchresultatHemmaseger35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Stevenage win (30.9%)Dubbelchans1X69.1%1.45
Över 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Ja 34% · Nej 66%Båda lagen gör målNej66%1.52
1.74 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Burton Albion win35%2.86
Oavgjort34%2.94
Stevenage win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Burton Albion0.92

Hemma share of expected goals 52.9%

Total expected goals1.74Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 25% · Under 75%

Stevenage0.82

Borta share of expected goals 47.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 34% · Nej 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Burton Albion

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Poäng6

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Stevenage

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
7
0.92
Expected goals
0.82
Burton AlbionStevenage
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Burton Albion signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Stevenage signalBorta matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 34%.

Match questions

Burton Albion vs Stevenage FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Burton Albion vunnen 35%,Oavgjort 34%,Stevenage vunnen 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.74 · Över 2.5 25% · Current selection Under