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MWI Malawi Super League · Match ·

Red Lions vs Kamuzu Barracks

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.64 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger52%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger21%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 52% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger52% selection probability
Projected score2–1Red LionsKamuzu Barracks
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
52% / 27% / 21%MatchresultatHemmaseger52%1.92
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Kamuzu Barracks win (20.7%)Dubbelchans1X79.3%1.26
Över 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Båda lagen gör målNej53%1.89
2.64 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.4 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Red Lions win52%1.92
Oavgjort27%3.70
Kamuzu Barracks win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Red Lions1.83

Hemma share of expected goals 69.3%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 49% · Under 51%

Kamuzu Barracks0.81

Borta share of expected goals 30.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Red Lions

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Kamuzu Barracks

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalBorta matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
52%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
21%
6
Points from supplied form
6
1.83
Expected goals
0.81
Red LionsKamuzu Barracks
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Red Lions signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Kamuzu Barracks signalBorta matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk48% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Red Lions vs Kamuzu Barracks FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 52% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Red Lions vunnen 52%,Oavgjort 27%,Kamuzu Barracks vunnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Över 2.5 49% · Current selection Under