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POL Poland I Liga · Final ·

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce

Prediction review

Gazde form
Final score2–2Predicție 2–1
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde55%
Egal26%
Victorie oaspeți19%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 55% selection probability
Prediction Pierdut
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde55% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
55% / 26% / 19%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Pogon Siedlce win (19.2%)Șansă dublă1X80.8%1.24
Peste 46% · Sub 54%Goals 2.5Sub54%1.85
Da 49% · Nu 51%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
10.9 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.4%Largest probability gapPolonia Bytom winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Bytom win55%1.821.6255.4%-0.4 pp
Egal26%3.853.5025.7%+0.3 pp
Pogon Siedlce win19%5.264.7518.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Bytom1.56

Gazde share of expected goals 61.9%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 46% · Sub 54%

Pogon Siedlce0.96

Oaspeți share of expected goals 38.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 49% · Nu 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Pogon Siedlce

0.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Puncte2

SignalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Câștig probability excluding draw
19%
6
Points from supplied form
2
1.56
Expected goals
0.96
Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Bytom signalGazde matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pogon Siedlce signalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Bytom câștig 55%,Egal 26%,Pogon Siedlce câștig 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Peste 2.5 46% · Current selection Sub