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MNE Montenegro Prva Liga · Meci ·

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.30 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde58%
Egal27%
Victorie oaspeți15%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde58% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Expected goals2.30Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub60% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu67% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
58% / 27% / 15%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Arsenal Tivat win (15%)Șansă dublă1X85%1.18
Peste 40% · Sub 60%Goals 2.5Sub60%1.67
Da 33% · Nu 67%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu67%1.49
2.30 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
7.7 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
FK Mornar Bar win58%1.72
Egal27%3.70
Arsenal Tivat win15%6.67

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Mornar Bar1.80

Gazde share of expected goals 78.3%

Total expected goals2.30Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 40% · Sub 60%

Arsenal Tivat0.50

Oaspeți share of expected goals 21.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 33% · Nu 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

FK Mornar Bar

2.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Puncte11

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Arsenal Tivat

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Câștig probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.50
FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Mornar Bar signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal Tivat signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Mornar Bar câștig 58%,Egal 27%,Arsenal Tivat câștig 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.30 · Peste 2.5 40% · Current selection Sub