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MNE Montenegro Prva Liga · Partita ·

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.30 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa58%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite15%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa58% selection probability
Projected score2–1FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Expected goals2.30Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto60% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67% for the selected side
Expected corners7.7Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
58% / 27% / 15%Esito partitaVittoria casa58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Arsenal Tivat win (15%)Doppia Chance1X85%1.18
Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%Goals 2.5Sotto60%1.67
Sì 33% · No 67%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo67%1.49
2.30 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
7.7 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
FK Mornar Bar win58%1.72
Pareggio27%3.70
Arsenal Tivat win15%6.67

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FK Mornar Bar1.80

Casa share of expected goals 78.3%

Total expected goals2.30Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 40% · Sotto 60%

Arsenal Tivat0.50

Trasferta share of expected goals 21.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

FK Mornar Bar

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Arsenal Tivat

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Vinta probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
4
1.80
Expected goals
0.50
FK Mornar BarArsenal Tivat
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FK Mornar Bar signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arsenal Tivat signalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

FK Mornar Bar vs Arsenal Tivat FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FK Mornar Bar vinta 58%,Pareggio 27%,Arsenal Tivat vinta 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.30 · Sopra 2.5 40% · Current selection Sotto