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Nederlands
FRA Frankrijk - Ligue 2 · Round 3 ·

Montpellier vs Boulogne

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.90 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst47%
Gelijkspel32%
Uitwinst21%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst47% selection probability
Projected score1–1MontpellierBoulogne
Expected goals1.90Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder70% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee67% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
47% / 32% / 21%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Boulogne win (20.9%)Dubbele Kans1X79.1%1.26
Boven 30% · Onder 70%Goals 2.5Onder70%1.43
Ja 33% · Nee 67%Beide teams scorenNee67%1.49
1.90 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.2 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Montpellier win47%2.13
Gelijkspel32%3.13
Boulogne win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Montpellier1.31

Thuis share of expected goals 68.9%

Total expected goals1.90Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 30% · Onder 70%

Boulogne0.59

Uit share of expected goals 31.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nee 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Montpellier

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Boulogne

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punten3

SignalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
21%
10
Points from supplied form
3
1.31
Expected goals
0.59
MontpellierBoulogne
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Montpellier signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Boulogne signalThuis matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Montpellier vs Boulogne FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Montpellier gewonnen 47%,Gelijkspel 32%,Boulogne gewonnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.90 · Boven 2.5 30% · Current selection Onder