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JPN Japan - J-League · Wedstrijd ·

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF Utd Chiba

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.75 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst54%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst20%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJEF Utd Chiba
Expected goals2.75Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven52% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
54% / 26% / 20%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes JEF Utd Chiba win (20.1%)Dubbele Kans1X79.9%1.25
Boven 52% · Onder 48%Goals 2.5Boven52%1.92
Ja 48% · Nee 52%Beide teams scorenNee52%1.92
2.75 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win54%1.85
Gelijkspel26%3.85
JEF Utd Chiba win20%5.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.93

Thuis share of expected goals 70.2%

Total expected goals2.75Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 52% · Onder 48%

JEF Utd Chiba0.82

Uit share of expected goals 29.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nee 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis unbeaten 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

JEF Utd Chiba

0.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punten4

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
20%
13
Points from supplied form
4
1.93
Expected goals
0.82
Sanfrecce HiroshimaJEF Utd Chiba
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sanfrecce Hiroshima signalThuis unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02JEF Utd Chiba signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF Utd Chiba FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima gewonnen 54%,Gelijkspel 26%,JEF Utd Chiba gewonnen 20%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.75 · Boven 2.5 52% · Current selection Boven