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CHE Switzerland Challenge League · Fixture ·

Etoile Carouge vs FC Rapperswil-Jona

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.08 expected goals
Away form
Home win48%
Draw24%
Away win28%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win48% selection probability
Projected score2–1Etoile CarougeFC Rapperswil-Jona
Expected goals3.08Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes61% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
48% / 24% / 28%Match resultHome win48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.1%)Double chance1275.9%1.32
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Yes 61% · No 39%Both teams scoreYes61%1.64
3.08 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin9.3%Largest probability gapFC Rapperswil-Jona winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Etoile Carouge win48%2.081.9048.2%-0.2 pp
Draw24%4.173.8024.1%-0.1 pp
FC Rapperswil-Jona win28%3.573.3027.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Etoile Carouge1.73

Home share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals3.08Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

FC Rapperswil-Jona1.35

Away share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 61% · No 39%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Etoile Carouge

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Away-context · form sequence

FC Rapperswil-Jona

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalAway failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.73
Expected goals
1.35
Etoile CarougeFC Rapperswil-Jona
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Etoile Carouge signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FC Rapperswil-Jona signalAway failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Etoile Carouge vs FC Rapperswil-Jona FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Etoile Carouge win 48%,Draw 24%,FC Rapperswil-Jona win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.08 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over