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INT Australia Victoria PL 1 U23 · Fixture ·

Melbourne Srbija U23 vs North Geelong U23

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.60 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw26%
Away win39%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win39% selection probability
Projected score2–2Melbourne Srbija U23North Geelong U23
Expected goals3.60Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over70% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes70% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 26% / 39%Match resultAway win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.7%)Double chance1274.3%1.35
Over 70% · Under 30%Goals 2.5Over70%1.43
Yes 70% · No 30%Both teams scoreYes70%1.43
3.60 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Melbourne Srbija U23 win36%2.78
Draw26%3.85
North Geelong U23 win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Melbourne Srbija U231.74

Home share of expected goals 48.3%

Total expected goals3.60Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 70% · Under 30%

North Geelong U231.86

Away share of expected goals 51.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 70% · No 30%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Melbourne Srbija U23

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

North Geelong U23

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
39%
3
Points from supplied form
8
1.74
Expected goals
1.86
Melbourne Srbija U23North Geelong U23
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Melbourne Srbija U23 signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02North Geelong U23 signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Melbourne Srbija U23 vs North Geelong U23 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Melbourne Srbija U23 win 36%,Draw 26%,North Geelong U23 win 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.60 · Over 2.5 70% · Current selection Over