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AUT Austria 2. Liga · Round 1 ·

SW Bregenz vs SV Kapfenberg

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.65 expected goals
Away form
Home win42%
Draw25%
Away win32%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win42% selection probability
Projected score2–2SW BregenzSV Kapfenberg
Expected goals3.65Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over71% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes70% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
42% / 25% / 32%Match resultHome win42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.4%)Double chance1274.6%1.34
Over 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Over71%1.41
Yes 70% · No 30%Both teams scoreYes70%1.43
3.65 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
SW Bregenz win42%2.38
Draw25%4.00
SV Kapfenberg win32%3.13

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

SW Bregenz2.02

Home share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals3.65Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 71% · Under 29%

SV Kapfenberg1.63

Away share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 70% · No 30%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

SW Bregenz

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

SV Kapfenberg

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Win probability excluding draw
32%
10
Points from supplied form
6
2.02
Expected goals
1.63
SW BregenzSV Kapfenberg
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01SW Bregenz signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02SV Kapfenberg signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

SW Bregenz vs SV Kapfenberg FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

SW Bregenz win 42%,Draw 25%,SV Kapfenberg win 32%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.65 · Over 2.5 71% · Current selection Over