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MEX Mexico Liga MX · Fixture ·

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul

Baseline forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.79 expected goals
Away form
Home win45%
Draw25%
Away win30%
Baseline forecastHome winTier C · 45% selection probability
Baseline forecast · Tier C

Match prediction

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win45% selection probability
Projected score2–1TijuanaCruz Azul
Expected goals2.79Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
45% / 25% / 30%Match resultHome win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Double chance1275.1%1.33
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Yes 56% · No 44%Both teams scoreYes56%1.79
2.79 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Tijuana win45%2.22
Draw25%4.00
Cruz Azul win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tijuana1.56

Home share of expected goals 55.9%

Total expected goals2.79Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

Cruz Azul1.23

Away share of expected goals 44.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 56% · No 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Tijuana

2.00pts / match
Played4Wins2Drawn2Losses0Points8

SignalHome unbeaten 4/4

Away-context · form sequence

Cruz Azul

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/4

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Win probability excluding draw
30%
8
Points from supplied form
10
1.56
Expected goals
1.23
TijuanaCruz Azul
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Low-confidence goal-prior fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tijuana signalHome unbeaten 4/4

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cruz Azul signalHome clean sheets: 3/4

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tijuana win 45%,Draw 25%,Cruz Azul win 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.79 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over