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ENG England National League · Round 1 ·

Scunthorpe vs Yeovil

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.72 expected goals
Away form
Home win51%
Draw27%
Away win22%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win51% selection probability
Projected score2–1ScunthorpeYeovil
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
51% / 27% / 22%Match resultHome win51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Yeovil win (22.3%)Double chance1X77.7%1.29
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreNo50%2.00
2.72 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.6 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Scunthorpe win51%1.96
Draw27%3.70
Yeovil win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Scunthorpe1.83

Home share of expected goals 67.3%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Yeovil0.89

Away share of expected goals 32.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Scunthorpe

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Yeovil

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Win probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
4
1.83
Expected goals
0.89
ScunthorpeYeovil
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Scunthorpe signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Yeovil signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Scunthorpe vs Yeovil FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Scunthorpe win 51%,Draw 27%,Yeovil win 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over