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FRA Francia - Ligue 1 · Partita ·

Monaco vs Marsiglia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–23.66 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa38%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite37%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 38% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa38% selection probability
Projected score2–2MonacoMarsiglia
Expected goals3.66Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra71% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano71% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
38% / 26% / 37%Esito partitaVittoria casa38%2.63
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.6%)Doppia Chance1274.4%1.34
Sopra 71% · Sotto 29%Goals 2.5Sopra71%1.41
Sì 71% · No 29%Entrambe le squadre segnano71%1.41
3.66 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Monaco win38%2.63
Pareggio26%3.85
Marsiglia win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monaco1.85

Casa share of expected goals 50.5%

Total expected goals3.66Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 71% · Sotto 29%

Marsiglia1.81

Trasferta share of expected goals 49.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS split 71% · No 29%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Monaco

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punti9

SignalCasa won 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Marsiglia

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
38%
Vinta probability excluding draw
37%
9
Points from supplied form
10
1.85
Expected goals
1.81
MonacoMarsiglia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monaco signalCasa won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Marsiglia signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk62% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Monaco vs Marsiglia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–2 · 38% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monaco vinta 38%,Pareggio 26%,Marsiglia vinta 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.66 · Sopra 2.5 71% · Current selection Sopra