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JPN Giappone - J-League · Partita ·

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa43%
Pareggio29%
Vittoria ospite28%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa43% selection probability
Projected score2–1Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra51% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
43% / 29% / 28%Esito partitaVittoria casa43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes V-Varen Nagasaki win (28.2%)Doppia Chance1X71.8%1.39
Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%Goals 2.5Sopra51%1.96
Sì 55% · No 45%Entrambe le squadre segnano55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.8 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.1%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Fagiano Okayama win43%2.332.1543%0.0 pp
Pareggio29%3.453.2028.9%+0.1 pp
V-Varen Nagasaki win28%3.573.3028%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Fagiano Okayama1.51

Casa share of expected goals 55.3%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 51% · Sotto 49%

V-Varen Nagasaki1.22

Trasferta share of expected goals 44.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

V-Varen Nagasaki

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Vinta probability excluding draw
28%
6
Points from supplied form
7
1.51
Expected goals
1.22
Fagiano OkayamaV-Varen Nagasaki
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Fagiano Okayama signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02V-Varen Nagasaki signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Fagiano Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Fagiano Okayama vinta 43%,Pareggio 29%,V-Varen Nagasaki vinta 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Sopra 2.5 51% · Current selection Sopra