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HRV Croazia - HNL · Round 1 ·

NK Lokomotiva Zagabria vs HNK Gorica

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.35 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa48%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite25%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa48% selection probability
Projected score1–1NK Lokomotiva ZagabriaHNK Gorica
Expected goals2.35Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto58% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
48% / 27% / 25%Esito partitaVittoria casa48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes HNK Gorica win (24.9%)Doppia Chance1X75.1%1.33
Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%Goals 2.5Sotto58%1.72
Sì 48% · No 52%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo52%1.92
2.35 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.4%Largest probability gapHNK Gorica winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
NK Lokomotiva Zagabria win48%2.081.9148.3%-0.3 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.4027.1%-0.1 pp
HNK Gorica win25%4.003.7524.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

NK Lokomotiva Zagabria1.32

Casa share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals2.35Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%

HNK Gorica1.03

Trasferta share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 48% · No 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

NK Lokomotiva Zagabria

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

HNK Gorica

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punti3

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Vinta probability excluding draw
25%
11
Points from supplied form
3
1.32
Expected goals
1.03
NK Lokomotiva ZagabriaHNK Gorica
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01NK Lokomotiva Zagabria signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02HNK Gorica signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

NK Lokomotiva Zagabria vs HNK Gorica FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

NK Lokomotiva Zagabria vinta 48%,Pareggio 27%,HNK Gorica vinta 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.35 · Sopra 2.5 42% · Current selection Sotto