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BRA Brazília - Serie A · Mérkőzés ·

Gremio vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score2–13.04 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem61%
Döntetlen23%
Vendég győzelem16%
Full model forecastHazai győzelemTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHazai győzelem61% selection probability
Projected score2–1GremioChapecoense
Expected goals3.04Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Felett59% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Alatt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
61% / 23% / 16%Mérkőzés eredményeHazai győzelem61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (16.2%)Dupla esély1X83.8%1.19
Felett 59% · Alatt 41%Goals 2.5Felett59%1.69
Igen 54% · Nem 46%Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen54%1.85
3.04 total expected goalsPontos eredmény2–1
9.6 expected match cornersSzögletekAlatt 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.9%Largest probability gapGremio winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeElőrejelzésValós oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win61%1.641.5560.3%+0.7 pp
Döntetlen23%4.354.0023.4%-0.4 pp
Chapecoense win16%6.255.7516.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio2.10

Hazai share of expected goals 69.1%

Total expected goals3.04Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Felett 59% · Alatt 41%

Chapecoense0.94

Vendég share of expected goals 30.9%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitIgen 54% · Nem 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

Gremio

1.40pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Pontok7

SignalHazai failed to score: 2/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

1.00pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Pontok5

SignalVendég clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Nyert probability excluding draw
16%
7
Points from supplied form
5
2.10
Expected goals
0.94
GremioChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalHazai failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalVendég clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Gremio vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hazai győzelem · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio nyer 61%,Döntetlen 23%,Chapecoense nyer 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.04 · 2.5 felett 59% · Current selection Felett